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Will the ANC gain two-thirds majority?

Written by Stephanie Sadler
Tuesday, 21 April 2009 00:00

Size matters in South Africa’s national and provincial elections this week – the most competitive race since the end of apartheid. While an African National Congress (ANC) victory is predictably certain, the extent to which the ruling party maintains its victory is most important. And nearly half of the country’s 50 million people have registered to drop a ballot sheet in the boxes.

Achieving two-thirds of the vote allows the ruling party to alter the constitution, which has caused considerable unease given the circumstances of ANC leader Jacob Zuma’s past.

The 67-year-old polygamist leader has previously been accused of rape and 16 counts of corruption, tax evasion, fraud and racketeering. The rape case occurred some time after Zuma had been responsible for the government’s AIDS education campaign for the general public. Ironically, the woman was HIV-positive and Zuma didn’t use protection. He did, however – much to the dismay of health workers and educated public – claim to have “minimised” the risk by taking a shower afterward.

Though all of these charges have been dropped, the very charges brought against him fall in line with some of the crucial topics of this election. AIDS is a major issue as HIV affects up to 5.7 million South Africans and nearly 1,000 people die every day due to AIDS-related illnesses. Crime is also a major factor as the current statistics site more than 50 murders, 35 car-jackings and 150 rapes per day. Poverty is rife and unemployment rates are at 22% which means the people are in desperate need of jobs and housing. There is much to achieve for the president-to-be.

Despite his shortcomings (which many claim have been hyped by the media), Zuma is still widely-respected – especially by those who believe in his battle to win black rule for his country and hold Nelson Mandela’s party in high respect. Zuma is also often seen as free from Western influence. Predictions estimate a 60% win for his party which has held a significant majority since 1994 when it came to power.

The difference in this battle is that the party is on the defence, thanks to the growing number of opposition parties and, in particular, the Congress of the People (Cope). The breakaway party is led by former president Thabo Mbeki and has taken support away from the ruling party of which he left. The Democratic Alliance (DA), led by a notoriously strong woman, Helen Zille, is pulling ANC-supporters as is the Inkatha Freedom party led by Mangosuthu Buthelezi.

Race is still a predominant factor in the elections with most white and coloured voters siding with the liberal DA and blacks with the ANC, but there is hope that the end vote will surpass colour. A real democratic vote will focus on the needs and demands of the people.

With the 2010 World Cup on the horizon and the results of the election expected to begin rolling in on Saturday, there is no doubt it is an exciting time for South Africans.