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Abbas’s retirement adds to the uncertainty of Palestinians’ future

Written by Rebecca Benhamou
Tuesday, 10 November 2009 00:00

President Abbas’s retirement announcement last week sent shockwaves throughout Israel and Palestinian territories, dealing a blow to Middle East peace hopes. It is seen as the consequence of delaying the UN Human Rights Council's vote on the Goldstone report, accusing Israel and Hamas of war crimes in Gaza.

“I have told my brothers in the PLO Executive Committee and the Fatah Central Committee that I do not want to run in the upcoming [January 2010] presidential elections,” he said in a televised address.

Abbas’s retirement will also reinforce Palestinians’ disenchantment with politics. The Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) conducted a public opinion poll from October 7-11, interviewing 1200 people in Gaza and the West Bank. While 30.7% of respondents living in Gaza and 28.4% in the West Bank said they do not trust any political or religious factions, 23.5 % said they would not vote.

The study reveals that Marwan Barghouti, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mahmous Abbas are the most popular candidates for 2010. When asked about the faction they will vote for if elections take place, 40% of respondents said they support Fatah, and 17.9% would vote for Hamas.

A June 2009 JMCC poll suggests that Hamas’s popularity is suffering a setback as the support ratio declined from 27% in January, to 18.8% in June.

Dr Katarina Dalacoura, specialist on political Islam at the London School of Economics, said: “Hamas might be using Gilad Shalit release and its new Virtue Campaign as a way to conceal the fact that they lack a clear, political agenda.”

Gilad Shalit is indeed far more than a mere case of prisoner release. It is Hamas’s trump card. If by 2010 the Islamist movement manages to get the 450 prisoners home in exchange for Shalit, it will not fail to make an impact on Palestinian voters.

In early October, Hamas also issued gender policies, prohibiting women from riding bicycles, motorcycles and scooters. The list of religious dos and don’ts promoted by the Ministry of Religious Affairs has seen female lawyers forced to wear black robes and headscarves.

Gender specialist, UN Consultant and Adjunct Professor of Law at Cornell University Marcia Greenberg, says these gender policies will handicap women and their families in a practical way.

"If petrol and gasoline are scarcely available, and new rules limit transport for women, how are women to care for themselves and their families?" she asked. She added: "Such restrictions seem to be a play of power, a battle among men, from which women are caught in the middle."

Abbas’s retirement and Hamas’s effort to strike back should be a wake-up call for Bibi Netanyahu.  Abbas may not be the next Yasser Arafat, but if he leaves for good, Israel loses a strategic partner.  And Netanyahu should not show him the door.